Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
