Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
